Jack Nicholson unloaded his Malibu pad last October, and now he's listed the L.A. plot where one of his other houses burned down for $595K. Add this to the list of America's gruesome properties: director Roman Polanski allegedly drugged and raped a 13-year-old girl here in 1977. [TMZ via Curbed LA]
Source: http://curbed.com/archives/2012/11/29/celebrity-real-estate-140.php
mariners mets shades of grey pittsburgh penguins record store day jennie garth space needle
If you are using Google Adwords to advertise your business, here is a step by step process to determine if you are making money? or losing it.
Do you know if your online advertising (like Google Adwords) is making money? or losing money?
There is an easy way to find out.
Read below for a step by step procedure to figure out (to the penny) which online advertising sources are your best money making sources of traffic? and which ones are just costing you money.
Why you MUST figure out the profitability of your internet advertising sources
You absolutely, positively need to know which of your advertising sources are profitable sources of new business? and which aren?t.
Yes, you can just throw a $1,000 here and $1,000 there to advertise online in a variety of ways.? You can assume that if you spend money to advertise, that money will return ?with friends.?
But, honestly? why would you make that assumption?
In our experience, some sources for leads are better than others.? Some seem good but turn out to be money pits.? Others are like the bubbling artesian well of continuous profitable business.
Why not know which source is which?
Ok, my fussing is over.? Let?s get down to business.
How to figure out the profitability of your internet advertising-? step by step
Here is a basic, step by step method for any business to discover if their online advertising is making (or losing) them money.
This method works particularly well if you are using Google Adwords or some form of pay-per-click advertising.? But, you can also use it if you are doing search engine optimization (SEO).
Note:? I will go over these steps in detail in the video below.
1. Set up a special landing page where your online traffic is going.? Make sure you can control the traffic so that a particular traffic source is the only one going to that page.
2. Put a special ?tracking? phone number on that page, as well as a new/unique email address.? Then, when people contact you, will know they came from that page and source.
3. Compile a list of those who contacted you using that special phone number or email address.? A call tracking phone number can produce a report that show exactly who called that number, how long the call was, etc.? Then compare that list to your records to determine which inquiries bought what.
4. Calculate your gross profit generated by the tracked inquires, and compare that to the cost of acquiring those inquiries.
5. Determine your marketing ROI (return on your investment) to see if you are making or losing money (and how much).
Here is a video example from a real live business on how they tracked their income from their Adwords campaign.
If you are tracking your online income by source, what are the ROI levels you are seeing?? Leave a comment below to share with others on what they might expect.
Take advantage of our new special report (free to download!).? It is entitled?
?How you can get to quality leads before your competitors?
? and capture the lion?s share of new business out there?
The free report shows you 3 key things you can do to zoom ahead of your competitors.? We are using these ideas with our business clients, too so it is real world stuff.
Download this special report today!
mothers day 2012 cinco de mayo osama bin laden death spinal muscular atrophy brooklyn nets may day protests tony nominations 2012
Does it seem like courts keep telling us we have to monitor all juvenile behavior in the workplace? Do we need to hire ?conduct cops? for our hallways? A court ruling last week smacked some sense into the laws and said ?no? ? not all bad-boss behavior is automatically ?discrimination.? Is this an early holiday gift to employers?
Case in Point: Josalynn Brown and Carolyn Wilson, who are African-American, worked as nurses at a suburban Chicago hospital. They joined 10 other nurses in complaining to HR that Filipino nurses were receiving better assignments and training than black nurses. Hospital officials investigated, but couldn?t corroborate the claims.
Eventually, Brown and Wilson requested and were granted a transfer to another hospital owned by the parent company. But the complaints didn?t stop. Brown and Wilson voiced several protests to HR, including that their new supervisors were giving them the ?cold shoulder? treatment and had engaged in mild name-calling, referring to one of the nurses as a ?cry baby? and a ?spoiled child.?
Brown and Wilson again asked to be switched to another location. This time, the request was denied. They sued the hospital for race discrimination and retaliation.
The verdict: Title VII of the federal Civil Rights Act makes it unlawful to discriminate against employees based on their race with respect to their ?compensation, terms, conditions or privileges of employment.? But receiving the ?cold shoulder? from a boss and mild name-calling does not rise to the level of actionable discrimination, the court said.
?The fact that someone disagrees with you (or declines to take your advice) does not, without more, suggest that they discriminated against you,? the court ruled. ?Title VII protects against discrimination, not ?personal animosity or juvenile behavior.' Personality conflicts at work that generate antipathy and ?snubbing by supervisors and co-workers' are not actionable under Title VII.? (Brown v. Advocate S. Suburban Hosp., 7th Cir., 11/21/12)
3 Lessons Learned ? Without Going to Court
1. Investigate immediately. The court noted that the hospital responded to the nurses race and retaliation discrimination complaints right away with an investigation. HR tried to connect the dots to see if the new supervisor?s conduct was motivated by the nurses? previous discrimination complaints. However, the supervisors had no knowledge of the nurses? previous complaints at the prior location, so no racial motivation could be shown.
2. Prohibit name calling as a whole. Even though all name-calling behavior may not be illegal (the court noted the name-calling in this case made no references to race), it may create an unpleasant culture to work in. Even though the court said Title VII doesn?t protect ?personal animosity or juvenile behavior,? name-calling can still cost big bucks to defend.
3. Make your harassment, discrimination and retaliation prevention policy stricter than the law. The prohibited conduct listed in your Harassment, Discrimination and Retaliation Prevention Policy should be stricter than what the law will allow in order to curtail these kinds of lawsuits. That being said, remember to include language like, ?A violation of this policy does not necessarily amount to a violation of the law.? This will go far in showing that just because your culture will not tolerate certain behaviors it does not make engaging in them illegal in the eyes of the law.
Attention: Readers, Publishers, Editors, Bloggers, Media, Webmasters and more...
We believe great content should be read and passed around. After all, knowledge IS power. And good business can become great with the right information at their fingertips. If you'd like to share any of the insightful articles on BusinessManagementDaily.com, you may republish or syndicate it without charge.
The only thing we ask is that you keep the article exactly as it was written and formatted. You also need to include an attribution statement and link to the article.
" This information is proudly provided by Business Management Daily.com: http://www.businessmanagementdaily.com/33924/boss-gives-the-cold-shoulder-merely-a-disor-is-it-discrimination "
David Rakoff Bourne Legacy Chad Johnson London 2012 Soccer dwight howard Olympics closing ceremony PGA Championship 2012
Sorry, Readability was unable to parse this page for content.
Source: http://dfw.cbslocal.com/video/8011730-garry-seiths-morning-weather-report/
callista rick perry travis barker get back on board rob lowe peyton manning what is sopa marianne gingrich
You?ve done it ? you?ve created a website, so now it?s time to work on the Internet promotion aspect. You probably have questions on how to start and what to do, but don?t worry, these tips can help you. Listed below are some handy tips that will help you get started with using your site to bring some earnings in.
Customize your 404 pages. It is inevitable that at some point in time a search engine will lead a customer to a dead link. You can make this heinous event a little more manageable by customizing your 404 page into a fun way to redirect them to the proper site.
Make it as easy as possible for your customers to find the price of the product or service you offer them. Online shoppers never appreciate a hidden price; many of them will assume such hidden prices indicate something shady about the product or its seller. Being coy about your prices only hurts the trust and loyalty you want to encourage in your customers.
When working with Internet promotion, do not forget to jump on the Facebook boat. It is not going to sink for a long time and you can attach a simple ?visit us on Facebook? to any form of advertising, such as fliers, billboards, television or radio.
Make your customers emails more personal so that your customers will actually read them. You want them to feel something from it, not that it?s just another business email that belongs in the trash. Try adding their name in the subject line and open the email with their name, to appear like you are talking directly to them.
When you are building your new internet promotion scheme, consider existing companies. Seek out well known and well trusted companies and provide them a service or establish a relationship with them that will get your link posted on their partner page. You will gain a lot of extra exposure this way.
One of the things that you need to have in order to succeed in web marketing is a user- friendly website. In order for visitors to easily navigate through your website you can use sub-headlines. This will keep your visitors from being bored in which they would gain information just by skimming through your website rather than spending time reading long articles.
To boost your traffic and your authority and gain more visibility on the Internet, offer some products for free. Free products, as long as they?re high quality, always generate talk, and they?re great for building a positive reputation. Be smart about it, of course ? don?t bankrupt yourself because you?re giving everything away and not building in a way to make money.
Build other websites that revolve around your primary product or subject. Do not create websites that are junk. Take your time and include relevant information. This will keep people at your website longer, and you will be able to trust the links to your website, which is where you will bring in customers and make money.
Once your Affiliate marketing strategy has begun to generate profits, make a list of the things you are doing that generate the most success for your business. Look at your list every day and pick one or two things you will accomplish by the end of the day. Make this commitment and you will not waste time by checking emails, reading posts on social sites or doing anything else that does not make money.
,h3>How To Make Money
To network and improve the visibility of your brand, go to real-world internet marketing events. There are several such events every year, such as PubCon, where internet marketers can interact with their virtual colleagues and share ideas on how to make money. If you?re lucky, you can even find a business partner.
?Increase traffic? is the one high commandment of internet marketing, but maybe it shouldn?t be. Traffic is good, and more traffic is better, but never forget that satisfying customers is how you actually make money online. Do what you can to increase your website?s traffic without losing sight of the customers that actually pay for your bottom line.
When setting prices for the products you are selling, be sure to keep customer demographics in mind. For example, if you are selling guides for college students to make money online while they are in school, selling those guides for $100 would be foolish, since many college students don?t have that kind of money to burn.
Now you should be much more prepared when it comes to Internet marketing. The tips that were given has provided you some proven advice that can help you compete with experienced experts. We wish you every success!
A blog on making money,how to make money,earn money online.
The new generation of autoblogging systems.the artist sacha baron cohen oscars the old curiosity shop jane russell meryl streep martin scorsese sacha baron cohen
A retired British naval officer?s scathing email to his three adult children about his bitter and frustrating disappointment in all of them has gone viral with his eloquence and biting honesty. Nick Crews, 67, of Plymouth, England, sent the letter to his two daughters and...
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/see-kevin-costner-1983-apple-commercial-131657954.html
hugo nfl combine 84th annual academy awards beginners 2012 oscars the shore meryl streep oscar wins
DALLAS, Texas, Nov. 28, 2012 (SEND2PRESS NEWSWIRE) ? Orange Leap?s monthly Shine Brighter Series of webcasts for nonprofits continues on Thursday, December 6, 2012, 2 p.m. EST, with ?Twitter for Nonprofits? presented by Dawn Westerberg, president of marketing consulting firm Dawn Westerberg Consulting LLC (http://dawnwesterberg.com/).
?Twitter may be the most misunderstood and underused social media platform, but it is an incredibly powerful way to build relationships as well as amplify and accelerate your nonprofit?s message,? said Westerberg. ?This session will explore the ways nonprofits can benefit from a regular Twitter presence.?
Attendees will learn:
* Who to follow and how to grow your followers;
* The power of #hash tags for key words, events and chats;
* Free tools for more efficient participation and helpful analytics;
* How to use Twitter lists to key in on critical audiences such as donors, media, other nonprofits, and influences;
* Bonus ? how to get more online presence through your business partners.
There is no charge for nonprofits attending the session, but registration is required. Registration information can be found at http://www.orangeleap.com/shinebrighter.shtml .
Orange Leap launched the Shine Brighter Series in October and has featured experts from around the country on a variety of topics with the intent to provide valuable tips and strategies that nonprofits can use to fulfill their mission. This particular session on Twitter was developed in response to requests from attendees.
About Orange Leap:
Orange Leap (www.orangeleap.com) helps nonprofits raise more money with fewer resources by streamlining the fundraising process with innovative technology solutions and collaborative support. A cloud-based, Constituent Relationship Management (CRM) technology solutions company, Orange Leap effectively manages donor and constituent relationships; processes donations and tracks gift history; and automates fundraising and marketing communications. Based in Dallas, Texas, the company works closely with nonprofits that are focused on reaching and engaging a wide range of missions and constituencies.
NEWS SOURCE: Orange Leap :: This press release was issued on behalf of the news source by Send2Press(R) Newswire, a service of Neotrope(R). View all current news at the Send2Press for Journalists Portal: http://Send2PressNewswire.com/ .
Source: http://floridanewswire.com/2012/11/28/fnw5773_035501.php
academy award nominees 2012 2012 oscar nominations kyle williams florida debate rand paul mark kirk florida gop debate
By ANNE M. PETERSON
AP Sports Writer
Associated Press Sports
updated 12:24 a.m. ET Nov. 29, 2012
PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) - It was something of an understatement when Alex Morgan said she was feeling it against Ireland.
Morgan scored three first-half goals and the Olympic gold medal-winning U.S. women's national team defeated Ireland 5-0 on Wednesday night, the latest match in an exhibition tour for fans following the London Games.
On the drizzle-slicked turf of Portland's Jeld-Wen Field, Abby Wambach and the rest of the U.S. women's team encouraged Morgan.
"Abby and everyone just kept saying `Shoot! Shoot! It's a slick surface!' So I did," Morgan said afterward, lingering to sign autographs. "I was feeling it."
Sydney Leroux added two goals to help the top-ranked United States improve to 4-0-2 on its Fan Tribute Tour.
Morgan struck first in the 24th minute. It was her 25th goal this year, making her the third U.S. player to reach the mark in a season - Wambach had 31 in 2004 and Michelle Akers had 39 in 1991.
Morgan scored again in the 34th minute, when she had a clear path from just outside of the box in front of goalkeeper Emma Byrne. Morgan's third, which was unassisted, came in the 44th minute.
It was her second career hat trick. She also had one March 7 in a 4-0 victory over Sweden.
Acting U.S. coach Jill Ellis said the 23-year-old forward's performance was "obviously special."
"Every time she touched the ball something dangerous happened," Ellis said.
Morgan was subbed out for Leroux, who scored in the 66th minute to make it 4-0. She scored again in the 81st minute for the final margin.
Leroux has a reserve-record 12 goals this season.
Hope Solo started in goal for the U.S. while her personal life was again grabbing headlines. Earlier Wednesday, husband Jerremy Stevens was taken into custody in Hillsborough County, Fla., for an alleged parole violation.
The day before their wedding on Nov. 13 in Washington state, Stevens was arrested for alleged domestic assault during a party in the Seattle suburb of Kirkland. Court documents said police reported seeing signs of a fight and a cut on Solo's arm.
A judge released Stevens after a court appearance, saying there was no evidence connecting him to any assault.
Solo spoke to reporters at a team training session in Portland on Tuesday, proclaiming she was happy and she would never stand for domestic violence. She blamed the media for distorting the story.
Following reports of Stevens arrest in Florida, Solo posted to Twitter: "I feel bad for all the ignorance in the world. People are so quick to judge. The media spins stories in such dramatic fashion. I will continue to show love, and never make judgments. I am blessed w True Love & the beautiful game of soccer. I wish everybody the same happiness."
Stevens was selected with the No. 28 pick of the 2002 draft by the Seahawks after a stellar career at Washington. But he also was involved in incidents away from football that included reckless driving charges for crashing into a nursing home.
Solo also went to Washington. According to various reports, they started dating following the London Olympics.
Solo did not speak to reporters after Wednesday night's match.
The United States is 9-0-0 against Ireland, including a 2-0 victory in September 2008 in Bridgeview, Ill. The Americans have outscored Ireland 35-1 in their nine matches.
Ireland, ranked 32nd in the world, has never qualified for the Olympics or the World Cup. The Portland fans, known for their affection for soccer, cheered the Irish players after the match. Ireland returned the favor, heading to both sides of the field to applaud.
Ellis, women's development director for U.S. soccer, coached the U.S. team against Ireland. Former Australian national team coach Tom Sermanni takes over the national team in January, replacing Olympic coach Pia Sundhage, who stepped down.
Ireland, coached by Sue Ronan, will play the United States again in Glendale, Ariz., on Saturday as the tour continues.
The U.S. women improved to 10-1-0 in Portland, with their lone loss coming to Germany in a FIFA Women's World Cup semifinal in 2003.
With temperatures in the low 40s, attendance for the weeknight match was 10,092.
"I'm not going to do an ice bath," joked fan favorite Megan Rapino, who played at the University of Portland. "It's too cold."
? 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
advertisement
More newsAFP - Getty ImagesSource: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/50005418/ns/sports-soccer/
denver weather planned parenthood what time does the superbowl start kobayashi margaret sanger paul george eddie long
Podcast: Play in new window | Download | Embed
It?s Episode #95 and we?ve got plugins for eCommerce, Age Restrictive Content, Cart Sharing, Online Quizzes and plugins to embed a post within another post! It?s all coming up on WordPress Plugins A-Z.
WordPress Plugins A-Z Podcast Can also be found at WPPluginsAtoZ.com
WordPress Plugins A-Z Podcast can be found on Stitcher Radio Click here to Download app or listen online Now.
WordPress Plugins A-Z Podcast can be found on the iTunes Store here.
>>>Self Promotion of our businesses here<<<
?Emergency help where you watch via screen sharing as I help with your problem PLUS A NEW SERVICE one-on-one coaching where I watch your screen and teach you to do all the things you need to do. Whether you want help or coaching or a combination, the rate is all the same
Do you need WordPress Emergency support you know when you see the ever favorite White Screen of Death. Or just some questions on how to do something please visit ?WPPro.ca/emergency for some quick tips or request some help.
Marcus is now available for phone consultations at http://marcuscouch.com/call. If you need help with WordPress, Podcasting, SEO or general Internet Marketing help, the new Clarity.fm platform is an easy way to schedule and pay for a consulting phone call.
?
?
?
Shout Outs ? Marcus would like to say hello to all at the OC WordPress meetup. Marcus and his wife attended for the first time on Monday and had a great time learning more about what Jetpack does, a few framework discussions, and a rousing good time at the House of Brews after the meeting. Marcus will be presenting some new plugins at future meetings. If you?re in Orange County California and want to participate, check out http://www.meetup.com/OC-Wordpress-Group/ for meeting dates and more information.
Jason Gardner
Looking for theme that will allow multi-users to post articles. Also looking for the best plugin to use to promote featured articles based on how many comments or likes it has received.
WordPress Popular Posts
http://wordpress.org/extend/plugins/wordpress-popular-posts/
WordPress Popular Posts is a highly customizable widget that displays the most popular posts on your blog.
Use this in conjunction with other plugins that import your social shares and Facebook wall comments into WordPress as comments. This plugin should do the rest and be customizable to the point that you can include social stats and such.
Joe Trent
Loves the show on Stitcher. He?s found that the show has helped him to shave 10 seconds off his load time.
Scott Johnson
How safe is it to upgrade to a new version of WordPress? When do you upgrade the site and not have to worry about the plugins not working?
Looks like I may loose seems WordPress 3.5 is in Beta 3 already http://wordpress.org/news/2012/11/wordpress-3-5-beta-3/
?
The Lowdown:
Well I started a new on line business for my kid and decided that I would use this e commerce plugin for it due to all I had heard and seen. Wile it is pretty straight forward to setup and easy to use. I did find it missing some of the great features in WP ecommerce, I needed a couple of different options for shipping and payment that are not available without adding a plugin that cost a bit extra.
In fact as good as this plugin is most of the features that make it good are additional priced plugins
Rating 4 Dragons
The Lowdown:
This was needed to put up an 18 plus on the site but has many purposes, I found it to be pretty straight forward and required just a minor amount of CSS tweaking to get it to look like I wanted it to.
rating 3 Dragons
The Lowdown:
This plugin was to offer an interesting way for getting people to share you in their social networks, you set it to offer them a discount say 10% if they tweet or facebook their shopping cart. The discount was to be applied right as soon as the tweet of facebook post was made..
While this plugins was a great idea in theory, I found it to be a pain for my use, it would not layout correctly and it would not work correctly seems they have a ways to go. I will revisit it after they do an upgrade
Rating 2 Dragons
http://wordpress.org/extend/plugins/wp-pro-quiz/
A powerful and beautiful quiz plugin for WordPress.
Requires: 3.3 or higher
Compatible up to: 3.4.2
Last Updated: 2012-11-11
Downloads: 98
Marcus? Take: This format has always been great for increasing page counts on sites and driving very qualified leads to your clients. As far as plugins go this is one of the best I?ve seen for quizzes, especially given the multitude of HTML embedding options for the questions.
Rating: 4 out of 5
?
http://wordpress.org/extend/plugins/wp-advanced-include/
Requires: 3 or higher
Compatible up to: 3.4.2
Last Updated: 2012-11-11
Downloads: 52
WP Advanced Include creates an [include] shortcode which can be used to add content from any Post or Page on your site including Post Content, Post Excerpt and Post Meta
Shortcode
Attributes:
content_id = [int] The id of the post or page you wish to include content from. content_limit = [int] Limits the content if required, set to a value less than 1 to remove limiting ? Default 0 content_limit_type ["words"|"chars"] Sets the content limit to be words or characters ? Default ?words? content_limit_append [string|empty string] Text to be appended to the end of the content if limited ? Default ?&hellip? content_type [post_content|post_excerpt|post_title|"meta name"] The content type to be included, if meta name, specify meta name. ? Default ?post_content? do_shortcode [true|false] Specify whether to parse shortcodes of not ? Default ?true?
The use of [include] to include itself with do_shortcode set to true will create an infinite loop, use wisely.
simple include of post content [include content_id=x]
include first 50 words of post content [include content_id=x content_limit=50]
include first 150 characters of post content [include content_id=x content_limit=150 content_limit_type=chars]
*include ?custom_meta_name? meta from post X [include content_id=x content_type="custom_meta_name"]
Marcus? Take: This is a wild plugin that has a lot of cool options for replicating content from one post to be embedded in another. The thing that I found really incredible was that I could use shortcodes of other programs and embed that to another page by using this WP Advanced Include shortcode. I used it for banners and testimonials to create a post mash-up for a client.
Rating: 5 out of 5
?
?
http://wordpress.org/extend/plugins/flowboard/
Web development tool, agile whiteboard with sticky notes.
Requires: 3.4 or higher
Compatible up to: 3.5
Last Updated: 2012-11-14
Downloads: 52
FlowBoard makes it easier for web development to visualize the agile process. Eg. Use it with Scrum or Kanban projects.
To see the plugin in action visit the Development and Demo Site!
Every note is saved as a custom post type and editable in wp-admin. The FlowBoard data is stored under the note posts metadata (custom fields).
Marcus? Take: I thought this was a great ?thinking out of the box? application that uses WordPress as its backbone. Lots of possibilities in this kind of use and can?t wait to see how things along this line advance in the future. Really amazing stuff
Rating: 4 out of 5
Rate us at iTunes, blubrry.com, ViaWay.com, Stitcher Radio and any place else you find us.
Feed back on that plaugin from last episode user admin simplifier it is great save me loads of grief with a client.
This has been episode 94 only 5 to go to 100 some excitement happening
John can be contacted at:
Marcus can be contacted at:
No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Facebook, Password Protection, SEO on WordPress Plugins Episode 81.
pau gasol marlins park marbury v. madison 2013 lincoln mkz burger king mary j blige google project glass google goggles
Virgin Mobile is all about deals for service and handsets, and it's adding some limited-time special deals for the holidays. The Samsung Galaxy SII (S2) has been $70 off since Monday, now just $299 off contract, and will stay that way through next Monday. The venerable HTC EVO 4G will be on sale for $199 and the Samsung Galaxy Reverb just $99 through Monday also, both $100 off.
You'll see the EVO 4G go on sale starting Friday, and the Galaxy Reverb starting Thursday. Virgin offers all of these devices off-contract, with monthly plans starting at just $35.
Source: Virgin Mobile
 |  |
Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/androidcentral/~3/Jqw63Iul_vk/story01.htm
tulsa easter eggs pineapple upside down cake free ecards flying car masters golf tournament the replacements
When it comes to website design and functionality it's critical to know that you don't know what you don't know. It's no longer acceptable to plead ignorance in business when it comes to your website because if you do you are offering yourself up as a lamb for sacrifice on the alter of 'those who know'.
Five things will result from this:
1.You will pay far more than you need to for your website ? as much as ten times more!
2.You will have a website that looks great and functions today, but has to be completely redesigned as your company grows and/or as technology changes. See above.
3.You will be dependent on your web designer/host to update your site with the result that you will always lag behind the times and usually at an hourly rate that will deter you pressing for continual updates. See #1
4.Your company's Internet ranking will always be haphazard and leave you wondering why some competitor with half your magic is higher in a Google search than you are.
5.You will accept that your business is your focus and leave the website to the experts with a sigh thinking that once you get your sales up you will hire the big guns to get a site like the one who ranks high in your industry. See #1.
Let's undo some of the mystique that leaves so many small as well as large businesses susceptible to being taken advantage of by those who hire themselves out as experts or vulnerable to the vagaries of hackers. Neither of these are costs you want to afford. How do I know?
Not very many years ago I invested over $30,000 in an absolutely gorgeous website. It was with a web design company with whom I had done business for many years in my executive capacity as VP of Sales and Marketing. I was then starting off on my own career and knew the Internet was the future. It wasn't until I was getting at the thin end of my capital that I started asking why the site just wasn't working. When I didn't the get the answers that made any sense ? they were in no language I knew ? I took my first course in Internet Marketing.
On morning one of a three day intensive workshop with the room full of people, laptops at the ready, we were instucted in how to get into the source code of our site. Well, for the next three days, I just took notes because I discovered three things: I had no authorization to access my own website; I didn't own my own domain, and the site was written in a code that was arcane and specialized to a point of non function. I was at the mercy of despots who charged $150.00/hour. And, I wasn't the only one.
Source: http://blogcritics.org/scitech/article/your-business-website-what-you-dont/
amar e stoudemire m.i.a. adrianne curry hoekstra best superbowl commercials 2012 best super bowl ads chrysler super bowl commercial
By Ree Hines, TODAY contributor
Actress Jennifer Lawrence is all too familiar with Hollywood's obsession and expectations when it comes to the waistlines of female stars. Shortly after she was cast as Katniss in "The Hunger Games," she faced criticism from those who thought she was too curvy to play the character.
That didn't matter to Lawrence. In a recent interview with Elle magazine, she stressed that she didn't want young girls skipping dinner "to look like Katniss." She even claimed that by Hollywood standards she's "obese."
And as she told NBC?s Andrea Canning in an interview that aired Wednesday morning on TODAY, she doesn't plan to change in order to please Tinseltown.
"I've never really dieted or wanted to diet, or anything, and I just feel like, it's something that really overwhelms our industry in an unfortunate way," Lawrence explained. "It just kind of becomes this distracting dark cloud."
A cloud that she finds particularly disturbing.
"I grew up with tabloids and seeing it on TV, and who's losing this much weight, how to lose this weight this fast, and it's just ? it's kind of gross," she said. "And I'm just ready for it to stop."
Until then, Lawrence is happy to buck that trend. And that's not the only Hollywood standard she avoids.
Lawrence, who's currently the focus of early Oscar buzz for her role opposite Bradley Cooper in "Silver Linings Playbook," doesn't have any interest in participating in the usual young-Hollywood hijinks.
"I'm very boring, and (the paparazzi) know that," she said. "Like, all the paparazzi leave my house at like, 5.pm., because they know I'm not going anywhere."
Those who would like a glimpse of the star can get it Wednesday, as "Silver Linings Playbook" opens in theaters nationwide. ?
?
Related content:
sandusky Sam Champion Hulk Hogan sex tape orioles venezuela Sarah Jones chicago marathon
The Circle of Wine Writers announced in a ceremony on Monday that Alexandra Harper is this year?s winner of the Young Wine Writer of the Year award.
Harper, who works for fine wine merchant Bancroft Wines and is currently studying towards her MW, won the award for her entry entitled: ?A surprise encounter with 007 ? Tasting wine with new eyes?.
The budding wine writer saw off 32 others to claim this year?s prize including nine shortlisted by the judges: Amanda Barnes, Naomi Bedford, Nik Byrne, Lous Dongray Jones, Barbara Drew, Will Heslop, Martin Klimmek and Laura Vickers.
Due to the high quality number of entries three runners-up were selected: Amanda Barnes, Nik Byrne and Barbara Drew, with each receiving wine presented by Yvonne May of Wine Australia.
The main prize included a ?1000 cheque presented by Pavilion Books, a two-week trip to the wine regions of Australia courtesy of Wine Australia and a year?s subscription to the Circle of Wine Writers.
Speaking about her win, Alexandra told Decanter.com: ?I am absolutely over the moon to have won and have the Cheshire Cat smile to prove it.
?I get so much pleasure from getting lost in wine I wanted to see if I could effectively communicate that to others; to show there is a world out there beyond sterile notes.
?I certainly wasn?t expecting to win and had been happily preparing my ?gracious loser? face when they called my name. It was a delightful shock to say the least.?
?It is an amazing opportunity that Pavilion Books, CWW and Wine Australia have given me and I don?t intend to waste it.? With a trip of a lifetime to Australia on the horizon, some writing, blogging and tweeting will certainly prove a welcome distraction to the looming 2nd year MW exams.?
Fiona Holman, editorial director of Pavilion Books, said: ?This award aims to encourage new writing talent within the world of wine and to provide a real opportunity for some inspiring travel to the vineyards and wineries of Australia.
?We are looking for wine writing potential rather than extensive knowledge or experience. We had a record number of quality entries this year which was most encouraging and I am sorry we could not give out more awards. I urge all this year?s entrants still eligible to enter again next year.?
The award, now in its 12th year, is sponsored by Pavilion Books, the Circle of Wine Writers and Wine Australia. It aims to encourage and support new talent in the world of wine writing.
Source: http://www.decanter.com/news/wine-news/530648/alexandra-harper-named-young-wine-writer-of-2012
Arlen Specter Winsor McCay Amanda Todd washington nationals Gary Collins bus driver uppercut Argo
Posted by Travel-and-Leisure:Destination-Tips Articles from EzineArticles.com on November 22, 2012
Here are some great places to visit and things to do if you find yourself in Boston, Lincolnshire. All places are within 10 miles radius of Boston and will appeal to most visitors who are holiday or are from another country......Click to read the complete article
Source: http://www.becleanlivegreen.com/?p=91528
hunger games premiere the bachelor good morning america red meat bachelor ben jon hamm kim kardashian law school rankings
The Arizona Residential Landlord and Tenant Act, together with any written agreements between the parties, governs the relationship between residential landlords and tenants in the State of Arizona. One of the primary landlord and tenant law issues that arises between landlords and tenants is the tenant's failure to comply with the rental agreement or with Arizona law. Section 33-1368?addresses various noncompliance issues, the required notices that must be provided by landlords, tenants' opportunities to cure any default, and how a landlord may proceed if there is no such cure. The statute provides as follows:
A. Except as provided in this chapter, if there is a material noncompliance by the tenant with the rental agreement, including material falsification of the information provided on the rental application, the landlord may deliver a written notice to the tenant specifying the acts and omissions constituting the breach and that the rental agreement will terminate upon a date not less than ten days after receipt of the notice if the breach is not remedied in ten days. For the purposes of this section, material falsification shall include the following untrue or misleading information about the:
1. Number of occupants in the dwelling unit, pets, income of prospective tenant, social security number and current employment listed on the application or lease agreement.
2. Tenant's criminal records, prior eviction record and current criminal activity. Material falsification of information in this paragraph is not curable under this section.
If there is a noncompliance by the tenant with section 33-1341 materially affecting health and safety, the landlord may deliver a written notice to the tenant specifying the acts and omissions constituting the breach and that the rental agreement will terminate upon a date not less than five days after receipt of the notice if the breach is not remedied in five days. However, if the breach is remediable by repair or the payment of damages or otherwise, and the tenant adequately remedies the breach before the date specified in the notice, the rental agreement will not terminate. If there is an additional act of these types of noncompliance of the same or a similar nature during the term of the lease after the previous remedy of noncompliance, the landlord may institute a special detainer action pursuant to section 33-1377 ten days after delivery of a written notice advising the tenant that a second noncompliance of the same or a similar nature has occurred. If there is a breach that is both material and irreparable and that occurs on the premises, including but not limited to an illegal discharge of a weapon, homicide as defined in sections 13-1102 through 13-1105, prostitution as defined in section 13-3211, criminal street gang activity as prescribed in section 13-105, activity as prohibited in section 13-2308, the unlawful manufacturing, selling, transferring, possessing, using or storing of a controlled substance as defined in section 13-3451, threatening or intimidating as prohibited in section 13-1202, assault as prohibited in section 13-1203, acts that have been found to constitute a nuisance pursuant to section 12-991 or a breach of the lease agreement that otherwise jeopardizes the health, safety and welfare of the landlord, the landlord's agent or another tenant or involving imminent or actual serious property damage, the landlord may deliver a written notice for immediate termination of the rental agreement and shall proceed under section 33-1377.
B. A tenant may not withhold rent for any reason not authorized by this chapter. If rent is unpaid when due and the tenant fails to pay rent within five days after written notice by the landlord of nonpayment and the landlord's intention to terminate the rental agreement if the rent is not paid within that period of time, the landlord may terminate the rental agreement by filing a special detainer action pursuant to section 33-1377. Before the filing of a special detainer action the rental agreement shall be reinstated if the tenant tenders all past due and unpaid periodic rent and a reasonable late fee set forth in a written rental agreement. After a special detainer action is filed the rental agreement is reinstated only if the tenant pays all past due rent, reasonable late fees set forth in a written rental agreement, attorney fees and court costs. After a judgment has been entered in a special detainer action in favor of the landlord, any reinstatement of the rental agreement is solely in the discretion of the landlord.
C. The landlord may recover all reasonable damages, resulting from noncompliance by the tenant with the rental agreement or section 33-1341 or occupancy of the dwelling unit, court costs, reasonable attorney fees and all quantifiable damage caused by the tenant to the premises.
D. The landlord may discontinue utility services provided by the landlord on the day following the day that a writ of restitution or execution is executed pursuant to section 12-1181. Disconnections shall be performed only by a person authorized by the utility whose service is being discontinued. Nothing in this section shall supersede standard tariff and operational procedures that apply to any public service corporation, municipal corporation or special districts providing utility services in this state.
E. The landlord shall hold the tenant's personal property for a period of twenty-one days beginning on the first day after a writ of restitution or writ of execution is executed as prescribed in section 12-1181. The landlord shall use reasonable care in moving and holding the tenant's property and may store the tenant's property in an unoccupied dwelling unit owned by the landlord, the unoccupied dwelling unit formerly occupied by the tenant or off the premises if an unoccupied dwelling unit is not available. If the tenant's former dwelling unit is used to store the property, the landlord may change the locks on that unit at the landlord's discretion. The landlord shall prepare an inventory and promptly notify the tenant of the location and cost of storage of the personal property by sending a notice by certified mail, return receipt requested, addressed to the tenant's last known address and to any of the tenant's alternative addresses known to the landlord. To reclaim the personal property, the tenant shall pay the landlord only for the cost of removal and storage for the time the property is held by the landlord. Within five days after a written offer by the tenant to pay these charges the landlord must surrender possession of the personal property in the landlord's possession to the tenant upon the tenant's tender of payment. If the landlord fails to surrender possession of the personal property to the tenant, the tenant may recover the possessions or an amount equal to the damages determined by the court if the landlord has destroyed or disposed of the possessions before the twenty-one days specified in this section or after the tenant's offer to pay. The tenant shall pay all removal and storage costs accrued through the fifth day after the tenant's offer to pay is received by the landlord or the date of delivery or surrender of the property, whichever is sooner. Payment by the tenant relieves the landlord of any further responsibility for the tenant's possessions.
F. A tenant does not have any right of access to that property until all payments specified in subsection E of this section have been made in full, except that the tenant may obtain clothing and the tools, apparatus and books of a trade or profession and identification or financial documents including all those related to the tenant's immigration status, employment status, public assistance or medical care. If the landlord holds the property for the twenty-one day period and the tenant does not make a reasonable effort to recover it, the landlord, upon the expiration of twenty-one days as provided in this subsection, may administer the personal property as provided in section 33-1370, subsection E. The landlord shall hold personal property after a writ of restitution or writ of execution is executed for not more than twenty-one days after such an execution. Nothing in this subsection shall preclude the landlord and tenant from making an agreement providing that the landlord will hold the personal property for a period longer than twenty-one days.
G. For the purposes of this chapter, the tenant shall be held responsible for the actions of the tenant's guests that violate the lease agreement or rules or regulations of the landlord if the tenant could reasonably be expected to be aware that such actions might occur and did not attempt to prevent those actions to the best of the tenant's ability.
H. For purposes of this section, "days" means calendar days.
One of the primary characteristics of A.R.S. ? 33-1368 is that before a landlord may proceed with legal action in almost all cases a prior written notice and opportunity to cure is required. For example, subsection A requires a 10-day notice for a "material noncompliance with the rental agreement" and allows the landlord to terminate the rental agreement only if the breach "is not remedied in ten days." Shorter notices are allowed for issues relating to health and safety, and in some limited cases immediate termination of the lease is permitted.
The most common breach complained of by landlords is the tenant's failure to pay rent in a timely manner. For such a breach, A.R.S. ? 33-1368(B) requires a five day notice before the landlord may pursue a forcible detainer action.
Assuming a tenant fails to cure a breach after notice by the landlord, the landlord may proceed with a forcible detainer lawsuit to have the tenant removed from the property and to recover damages incurred by the landlord. Pursuant to?A.R.S. ? 33-1368(C) a landlord is entitled to recover reasonable damages stemming from the tenant's noncompliance plus court costs and attorneys' fees.
Once the tenant is removed from the property the landlord may discontinue utility services and assuming the tenant does not retrieve property held by the landlord pursuant to subsection E, may sell such property and apply the proceeds to the amounts owed to the landlord.
If you are a landlord or a tenant involved in a dispute related to?A.R.S. ? 33-1368 you should contact an experience Arizona landlord tenant lawyer?to discuss your situation as soon as possible.
?
porphyria cinnamon rolls krampus robert de niro winner of x factor danica patrick
It's often said that if you suggest a salary first when negotiating a new job, you've lost. That's not true. Many employers won't even talk to you or extend an offer unless you give them what you're looking for or how much you're currently making. If you know how much your skills are worth, you're still in the game.
The folks at US News Money point out that the game of salary chicken doesn't work for everyone, and more and more employers know full well that candidates want to hear how much they're willing to pay before disclosing how much they make. They'll insist on at least knowing how much you make now, and many will even call your current or previous employer to find out if you're being truthful.
The moral of the story here is to do your homework. Understand how much your skills are worth and how other companies are paying your peers. Hit sites like Glassdoor and Salary.com to find out what you should aim for, and negotiate from there, even if it's a jump from your current employer. That kind of information is far more valuable than trying to hold out and make the hiring manager tell you how much they're willing to put on the table first. On Money offers up (and busts) some other salary negotiating myths?like when to negotiate and when not to?at the link below.
5 Myths About Negotiating Salary | US News Money
Photo by isak55 (Shutterstock).
radar weather morosini death jacoby ellsbury jacoby ellsbury lionel richie kenny rogers avatar the last airbender
Mozilla just launched the latest stable version of Firefox, which introduces Firefox's new Social API with a preview of the first social integration with Facebook Messenger for Firefox. This was previously only available in the Firefox beta channel.Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Techcrunch/~3/LKfEMlwlwyE/
william daley truffles truffles alabama vs lsu alabama vs lsu bcs championship game beyonce baby
3 hrs.
Stocks cut their losses to finish flat in choppy trading Tuesday, but Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's negative comments on the looming "fiscal cliff" put a damper on gains.
"[The Fed] can certainly have a meaningful contribution to supporting recovery, but in the worst case scenario where the economy goes off the broad fiscal cliff, which according to CBO and to our own analysis, the Fed [doesn't have the] tools to offset that," said Bernanke at the Economic Club in New York. "So it's important for congress to address the fiscal issues soon."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 7.45 points, or 0.06 percent, to close at 12,788.51, led by H-P . Bank of America led the blue-chip gainers.
The S&P 500 eked out a gain of 0.92 points, or 0.07 percent, to end at 1,387.81. The Nasdaq gained 0.61 points, or 0.02 percent, to finish at 2,916.68.
The CBOE Volatility Index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded above 15.
Among key S&P sectors, techs and energy lagged, while health care rose.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the ?fiscal cliff? poses a threat to the economic recovery, but outlined no further stimulative measures. He also said the budget situation is already hurting the economy and urged Congress to raise the debt ceiling to avoid a ?catastrophic default? on the nation?s debt obligations.
?We?re going to get a deal eventually, but the deal will be horrible for the economy,? said Uri Landesman, president of Platinum Partners. ?I?m pretty negative going forward?on a technical basis, you could have a rally, but we?re headed much lower because the market?s been extended for the last 4-1/2 months.?
Stocks logged their biggest rally in two months in the previous session, boosted by optimism for a "fiscal cliff" deal, a series of tax and spending changes next year that could push the economy into recession.
On the economic front, housing starts gained 3.6 percent to a seasonally-adjusted 894,000, hitting its highest rate in more than four years, according to the Commerce Department. Meanwhile, permits slipped 2.7 percent. Pulte , DRHorton and Lennar gained.
Among earnings, H-P reported earnings that beat expectations, but only after excluding a huge accounting charge relating to allegations of fraud tied to the acquisition of its Autonomy software unit. Shares plunged sharply to their lowest level in nearly 10 years. At least two brokerages downgraded their rating on the stock.?
Best Buy tumbled after the troubled consumer-electronics retailer posted earnings that badly missed previously-lowered estimates, while revenue was slightly better than expectations.
Campbell Soup declined after the canned soup maker posted lower quarterly earnings, hurt by charges related to its recent acquisition of Bolthouse Farms, but it reaffirmed its full-year forecast.
Salesforce.com is scheduled to post earnings after the closing bell.
Research In Motion climbed after Jefferies raised its rating on the BlackBerry maker to "hold" from "underperform" ahead of the smartphone maker's BlackBerry 10 launch.
News Corp said it will acquire a 49-percent stake in the YES Network, the New York Yankees' regional cable sports channel.
European shares ended in positive territory ahead of the expected euro zone approval of the next aid tranche for Greece.
Meanwhile, ratings agency Moody?s Investor Service stripped France of its triple-A credit rating and placed it on negative outlook. Markets saw Moody?s move as heightening the risk of other triple-A-rated countries such as Germany and the U.S. being downgraded.?
Source: http://www.nbcnews.com/business/stocks-close-flat-after-bernanke-remarks-1C7184322
paterno newt gingrich joe pa joe pa joe paterno dead marist south carolina primary results
Thank God for that, because his blog, Calculated Risk, has been an invaluable and influential read for numerous reasons.
For one thing, it's always been right. In its early days, when we all started reading it, it was way ahead of the curve in terms of warning about the housing bubble, horrible bank lending practices, and generally the economic collapse. From his perch in Newport Beach, CA he could see first hand the people taking out loans worth 10x their income, filling their Inland Empire garages with Harleys and Boats that they obviously couldn't afford.
But unlike many other bloggers who made a name during the crisis, he didn't stick with the doom and gloom message. He started making arguments for a GDP rebound in 2009.
Then in February of this year, he made his most important call: He announced: The Housing Bottom Is Here. McBride had officially come full circle from his days warning of housing collapse. Today, 8 months later, the housing bottom is becoming general consensus.
In addition to being correct on the economy, Calculated Risk has imparted the internet with other good practices, such as dutifully charting out the data, and examining data in an impartial, apolitical, non-hysterical manner.
He's the inventor of what we at BI call "The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever" which shows how this jobs recovery compares with other post-recovery comebacks.
He also tracks relatively unknown indices, like the Architectural Billings Index, or the ATA Trucking Index, and hotel occupancy rates, or the Restaurant Performance Index.
In a 30-minute conversation with Business Insider, he explained how charting these numbers every single month for nearly 8 years has allowed him to "let (the data) tell you a story," and accurately track each twist and turn we've seen during this historic period for the U.S. economy.
Because he's been so uncannily good at assessing the state of the economy, we had to get his take on what's coming next. Despite some concerns about the Fiscal Cliff, and the omni-present threat of a Europe blowup he says "I?m not a roaring bull, but looking forward, this is the best shape we?ve been in since ?97."
Underpinning his optimism is the fact that the State & Local bust will no longer be a drag in 2013, and that the housing turnaround story has a long way to go and is more robust than anyone would have expected, particularly in the hardest-hit areas.
He described a recent trip to Temecula, California:
"Temecula is a little inland city in southern California, written up as one of the disaster areas of the housing bust. And it?s a long commute to anywhere for work, so high gas prices kill them too. But I drove out there not long ago to see a friend who lives out there, and they?re starting to build again. And the local mall about a quarter of a mile from his house that was built during the boom that was all empty stores ? it?s completely full. We went there for dinner and it was packed."
That leads him to another shocking claim: It won't be long before California (!) has a balanced budget again.
His general outlook is also quite optimistic, and he explained why he doesn't get seduced by the gloom mentality:
You?ve been around long enough to know that there?s a whole industry of gloom and doom, that the ZeroHedge mentality kind of guys. I?m almost 60 years old. All my life there?s been people telling me that the world?s gonna end for this and that reason in the next few years.... I don?t think so, I think things are getting better in general. And there?s reasons for that. There?s good technology, I?m talking to you on a cellphone today that I couldn?t even imagine when the first cell phone came out. I tend to be positive about the future. I was telling people, when I started my blog in January 2005 that I wasn?t a doomer.
This has allowed him to avoid traps that have snared other economists. He describes an early disagreement with David Rosenberg, the well known Canadian bear, who was previously at Merrill:
I remember when I wrote a post ? I think it was in January of 2009 ? you know who David Rosenberg is ? he wrote a commentary back when what he wrote was free..., and I?m pretty sure about the timing that auto sales were going to collapse a lot further, and he had some arguments on it and I went and looked and thought ?auto sales also can?t go too much further, people have to replace their cars.? And so I wrote this article that says look, auto sales are near the bottom ? we were at a 9 million annual rate then- I said there?s just no way ? we have to be selling 12, 13,14 million because people need new cars every 5-7,8 years.
It was a simple, but correct way of thinking about things.
Among other things we talked about: Why the Wall Street Journal is always worrying about soaring interest rates, why ECRI's recession prediction models haven't worked, how much time per day he spends on his blog, and why he's not too worried about the fiscal cliff.
------------------
JW: How would you describe the economy right now and how do you see things going into 2013?
BM: The economy, I think right now, is still sluggish. Growth ? of course, you read a lot of the internet stuff, half the guys on the internet think it?s in recession. But I think we?re going to see a pick-up next year. I think things will ? there?s a couple things that are really positive ? obviously, there?s the negatives, your fiscal cliff, all that stuff.
But the state and local gov?t drag is pretty much over, and getting rid of that is really going to help and then of course, housing is a big plus.
JW: I saw that in one of your recent posts you actually said that California wasn?t really that far now from a balanced budget. What?s the situation there?
BM: It?s a combination of things. The enormous amount of cutting in California ? layoffs, state and local, and then the flip side is we just passed a resolution that was sponsored by Gov Brown to raise income taxes a little bit on incomes over 1 million dollars and to raise the sales tax a little bit ? temporary measures. And tax increases may act as a little bit of a drag but I think the offset to the budget will be nice. But I wouldn?t be surprised if we see all of a sudden a report come out, ?Hey, we?ve got a balanced budget in California.?
JW: That would be pretty wild, wouldn?t it?
BM: At the same time, the economy is clearly picking up. I spend most of my time on the coastal areas, and the coastal areas have been recovering much quicker than the inland areas, but even when I go out to the inland areas, people I talk to ? things are definitely improving.
JW: When I think about your work, it?s so intensely data-driven, following certain indicators week after week or month after month to see how they evolve. Do you find that trips out into certain areas, whether it?s the inland or neighborhoods in the coast helps to augment your data-driven research?
BM: Yes. It always helps. I have a friend who lives in Temecula ? where are you Joe ? back east somewhere?
JW: Yes, I?m in New York City
BM: Temecula is a little inland city in southern California, written up as one of the disaster areas of the housing bust. And it?s a long commute to anywhere for work, so high gas prices kill them too. But I drove out there not long ago to see a friend that lives out there, and they?re starting to build again. And the local mall about a quarter of a mile from his house that was built during the boom that was all empty stores ? it?s completely full. We went there for dinner and it was packed.That?s just anecdotally ? but you just kinda sit there and go ?Wow.? This was supposed to be the ground zero
JW: That?s amazing.
BM: There are other parts that are obviously are not quite recovering like that, but you (missing) can really tell that there?s been a change.
JW: Bigger picture, when I started reading your blog years ago, you were one of the people that was warning about the bust that was coming and you were really far ahead of the curve on pretty much the entire housing collapse and your timing was great. A lot of the people who were really negative then were really never able to get out of that mindset and accept the recovery. How is it that you didn?t fall into that trap and how is it that you are able see the turn?
BM: I don?t know exactly. As you know, I post a lot of data. People think I post a lot of data for fun ? I started using the blog as an archive of data. If other people are interested that?s great, and then once in a while I post a commentary. But I think when you?re looking at the data you also have to let it tell you a story. And over time, you?ve got to start figuring, ?wait a second. How long can we run with housing starts at this incredibly low level ? 5, 6 hundred thousand a year ? when you know that our population is still growing. After a while you start scratching your head.
I remember when I wrote a post ? I think it was in January of 2009 ? you know who David Rosenberg is ? he wrote a commentary back when what he wrote wasn?t free ? unfortunately ? but in January 2009, and I?m pretty sure about the timing that auto sales were going to collapse a lot further, and he had some arguments on it and I went and looked and thought ?auto sales also can?t go too much further, people have to replace their cars.? And so I wrote this article that says look, auto sales are near the bottom ? we were at a 9 million annual rate then- I said there?s just no way ? we have to be selling 12, 13,14 million because people need new cars every 5-7,8 years.
Paul Krugman eventually picked that one up from me and wrote a piece in the Rolling Stone ? where they called me up to fact check, back when they used to fact check. And that?s the same kind of logic that I used on the housing. You just kind of look at it and go, after a while, there?s all this excess supply that was built, then people pulled back and lived with their parents ? but people don?t want to live with their parents very long. That supply gets absorbed. When I go out into The Inland Empire I can tell you...If it?s not mostly growing, it?s getting there. Where I live, as soon as foreclosures come on the market there?s people lined up.
Why do I change my views? I don?t know, I just go where the data leads me. I think it?s better question for some of the other people is why they didn?t change theirs?
And I think the answer is they tend to be bearish all the time. You?ve been around long enough to know that there?s a whole industry of gloom and doom, that the ZeroHedge mentality kind of guys. I?m almost 60 years old. All my life there?s been people telling me that the world?s gonna end for this and that reason in the next few years....
I don?t think so, I think things are getting better in general. And there?s reasons for that. There?s good technology, I?m talking to you on a cellphone today that I couldn?t even imagine when the first cell phone came out. I tend to be positive about the future. I was telling people, when I started my blog in January 2005 that I wasn?t a doomer. This is a rare thing, that I was turned pessimistic but it was hard to
convince people of that because most people didn?t know who I was.
JW: That?s one of the things I really like about your approach. The consistent thread seems to be, whether it?s the auto sales, the housing, a very straightforward, simple approach to it. I don?t hear anything fancy or theoretical, just basic facts about population, the need to establish new households, replace cars, the inevitable advance of technology. Thinking about it that way seems to have served you well.
BM: A lot of it is simple. I read a lot of different economists to try to understand theory, because I?m not an economist ? I have an MBA ? I kind of understand business, I?ve always been good with numbers, but I read economic theory and I?m glad to read?when we were going into this crisis, I was reading Krugman all the time because it was clear to me that he had a handle on what was going on, from what was going to happen to interest rates?.I?d read what he would write and read what other people would write and go, this makes a lot more sense to me. And all that has worked out.
I used to joke that every year ? when is the Fed going to raise rates? Not in the next couple years, then they finally came out and said so themselves. So rates aren?t going anywhere for a while.
You read one of these articles in the WSJ about rising rates every year.
JW: So how is it that someone who doesn?t have pure economic training is able to see all this stuff so much clearer than the people at the Journal or even a lot of people on Wall Street who have a lot of the same feelings and are worried about a rate spike, and so forth?
BM: I think a majority of people on Wall Street probably got it right. They just don?t think like the WSJ. I think there?s a whole group of people that got a lot of this right, and they?ve probably just been making money and not bragging about it. The people that thought rates were going to go up were selling Treasuries, and that wasn?t happening. So I think the real Wall Street view was that rates were going up. Even today, I?m reading about how people are going to throw in the towel and give up on US government and rates are going to spike ? not on this planet!
JW: Are you surprised at the institution that Calculated Risk has become? Did you think you?d be going strong 7 years later?
BM: It?ll be 8 years in January. I didn?t even know what a blog was. I?m going to start one and figure out what it is, and I?m going to write about housing, because that?s what I?m most concerned about. ?What happens is it just got more and more interesting, the truth is I?m always interested in the economy
JW: In terms of the tracking of data and the way you did it is this something you did as a habit before you were a blogger? Did you keep databases of things that were interesting to you?
BM: Not really. I would read about stuff. I read an article in the L.A. Times but I?d always try to pull up the data that was really interesting to me, because I understand that reporters say ?Well these are the highest starts in four years.? Well what does that really mean? Starts were incredibly low four years ago.
The classic is? if starts had been down this month. That would?ve been great news if they were just down a little, because last month was the largest we?ve had in four years. I was thinking it probably won?t beat last month again, it?ll be something below that. But if you read an AP story from 7 or 8 years ago, it would
say ?Starts are down? and people would go ?Oh no, the housing recovery is over.?
That, to me, is kinda like incomplete reporting. And you know that, you?re very careful with what you write ? each mark doesn?t really matter that much, when you put it into a graph and you look at the trend, it matters. You see that trend ? housing starts ? that happened because of real reasons. It?s not because the builders are overexcited or there?s a tax credit, or even because the Fed is holding interest rates low ? people need housing, and in a lot of areas, there?s not enough. It?s really kind of that simple.
JW: What are some areas where you think the supply is gone and you see a need for more housing?
BM: Southern California for and probably the Bay area too. If you include Nevada and Las Vegas there?s plenty of foreclosure supply, but any building that?s going up is targeted at different markets.
JW: Do you think your proximity on the West Coast around these markets that were really the ground zero for the crisis gives you a perspective that those of us in New York don?t have?
I think it helped a lot. Especially during the bubble. I was seeing firsthand people that could barely swing at getting loans -- people getting loans ten times their income with no money down. Even at today?s ridiculously low rates, that would be hard for them to make a go of it. And then they go out and borrow more money on
their house...and I?m thinking man, this is really a problem.
JW: I?ve noticed you?ve been fairly sanguine about the fiscal cliff, both in terms of the effects if we go a little into January without a deal, and also the prospect of getting a deal, you don?t seem too concerned. Could you frame your thinking around that and why you?re not too worried if we go into January and taxes jump and spending goes down?
BM: Well, I think the hardest thing to do is predict what politicians are going to do. It?s hard to imagine, but of course we saw the debt ceiling debate a year ago, that people are really that crazy. Obviously, tax rates are going to go up in some way on the high income earners, that?s why I originally thought they?d let it slide past January and then vote, so that Republicans could say ?Oh we?re just cutting taxes we?re not raising any?. They could do that now and say they?re going to expire and there?s nothing you can do about it. You can?t predict, really. You kind of have to say, ?well are they going to do something dumb or are they going to come to some sort of compromise?? I think they?ll come to some sort of compromise that seems like the most logical thing to me. I could be wrong about that.
JW: Let?s say we were in the middle of February and still didn?t have a deal. Would you start to get worried then? There have already been signs that business investment has faded in response to this issue?if this goes on too long, could it cause a recession in 2013?
BM: Definitely. I think the CBO analysis is very good. The thing is, if it goes into January, I think we?ll bounce back very quick. If it goes into February, then there?s a bit of damage done from people pulling back on investment and people laying off ? defense contractors are already cutting back where they can, because they expect some sort of cuts. I know this firsthand, because my brother just took retirement. He
worked 35 years at the same place and is taking early retirement.
The longer it goes, I think the more danger there is. I would like to see an agreement by the end of the year, I think that would be best. Early January, doesn?t worry me at all. I?ll get more anxious if it keeps going. What do you think about that Joe? What is your view on what?s going to happen with that?
JW: I think my thinking is very much in sync with you, I think I?d rather we call it something else, like the fiscal slope or something like that, and I think a lot of the coverage has been pretty poor in the way it?s been framed, but I?m with you, if they get a deal in early January it?s not going to be an issue, and I think there?s even a decent chance maybe in December announce a six-month extension so they have a little more time to work it out, so I?m not too worried at this point.
Besides the cliff, What warning signs would make you worried about a recession possibly coming?
BM: Clearly, the one thing that?s always hanging over our heads is some kind of implosion in Europe. You?re talking about guessing what politicians are going to do ? I don?t know ? I do know that you can?t keep everybody in a recession forever and expect to have the same policymakers because those are democracies. Those people will eventually be gone. The clock?s ticking on Europe, I just don?t know howJW: I agree with you on that.
BM: And state and local gov?ts cutbacks are slowing dramatically. It doesn?t have to grow next year ? just don?t drag.
JW: Do you expect State & Local to be a drag next year or a zero, or a boost?
BM: I think we?re looking at a zero. Some states will cut back a little, some states will probably add. I think we?re looking at a zero next year and it?s been subtracting .3% from GDP for about three years in a row on average. We?ll replace that with more federal drag, I?m sure, but we?re pulling maybe a half a percent, a percent from federal because we?ve been dragging on the federal all year this year too, then
we also get the housing tailwind going into next year?People start getting more optimistic, and mortgage lenders, once convinced that prices have stabilized, they?ll relax their standards a little bit like Bernanke is pushing them to do. Right now is a good point in time.
JW: What?s your day like? Going back to you as a blogger, how much time do you
spend on the blog and what else do you do?
It varies depending on what data comes out. Usually 4 to 6 hours, sometimes more. I do a lot of data crunching, and I can guarantee you that at least half of what I look at never shows up anywhere. There?s nothing interesting there, so I don?t post it. The rest of my day, I?m actually working on some other projects.
JW: Finally, if you were stranded on a deserted island and could only track 3 or 4 economic indicators, or if someone was asking for the best indicators to follow, which would you recommend?
BM: I think two most important are GDP and employment reports, and after that, anything housing. Residential investment and housing starts would be ?, tied. Usually those move somewhat together ? to me, those are the forward looking indicators. GDP and employment tell you where you?ve been, and housing tells you where you?re going.
I see these guys at ECRI with these black box models and those work well in most recessions, but not in this one... To me, housing is always the first thing I look at because when somebody asks me how the economy is doing, I think about the housing market. If housing is starting to slow, I?m starting to get worried. If housing ticks up, I?m feeling better.
JW: Why do you think traditional models have failed during this recovery and
have given all these false alarms?
BM: I think one of the reasons ? and I?m not 100% sure on this ? but I think a lot of the models still use Mortgage Bankers Association Purchase index, and that?s been moving sideways. That?s their typical housing component. If that?s moving sideways, they don?t see it adding to the economy right now.
JW: Why hasn?t that picked up?
BM: I?ve been talking to them about that, and there?s some head-scratching going on. I really don?t know the answer to that. To me, I?m very surprised. Especially because the Fed?s senior officer survey is showing an increase in the demand for apartments. Part of the reason why the mix is changing a little bit, and it?s hard to tell because the MBA doesn?t survey everyone, that could be part of it but does not capture all the cash buyers. So to me, it?s a little bit of a mystery? I would expect that to start to pick up, and it hasn?t?I know that for years ECRI used that as their housing.
Of course, they?ve called three or four recessions in the past year and a half. And I understand, they?ve got a model that works great in normal recessions. But if you don?t stop and ask yourself what?s going on ? I?ve used a model that uses housing. I called the recovery in the second half of 2009 even as I said housing was going to go down. If I would have been a slave to the housing model, I couldn?t have done that.
Part of that was looking at autos, part of it was looking at the gov?t stimulus plan, thinking it was going to be enough to arrest this and probably start us back?I don?t know any way you can be a slave to an indicator.
JW: Thank you.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Now go read some Calculated Risk!
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-mcbride-of-calculated-risk-2012-11
the lucky one pittsburgh pirates mariners mets shades of grey pittsburgh penguins record store day
