We can outline really a new role which Turkey is trying to play in the entire region of the ME which takes into consideration the crisis over Syria and the rising role of Turkey which tries to become a regional hegemon or a major player within the region. On the other hand it is clear that Turkey is coming up as one of the partners within the NATO alliance and it tries to provide certain assurances to NATO that it will be able to come up as a partner to which NATO will be able to rely on in case of unexpected developments around Syria.
But don?t you think that perhaps this is a hard-line position of Turkey?
I believe it can backfire in different directions for Turkey. And one of the issues is obviously the Kurdish issue which is one of the concerns for the Turkish politics for a decade. And another issue that can backfire might be within bilateral relations of Turkey and Russia because it is not necessary that Russian foreign policies and Russian political actors will tolerate such kind of approaches which are shown by the Turkish side towards the Russian involvement around Syria. So, the backfire can be of both natures ? related to internal or domestic developments around the Turkish politics in the region and another possibility for a backfire might be related to Turkish-Russian relations.
Basically I?m not really sure that the political elite of Turkey will be able to convince itself to start the one-sided military action against Syria in this situation. It might be able to get support begging it from the other political actors including the US. So, considering the fact of the forthcoming elections in November I don?t think that any sort of large-scale military actions might be possible before we meet November this year. And on the other hand I don?t think that NATO currently is able and has a capacity to start a large-scale military action against the Syrian Government considering the fact that the so called opposition to Bashar al-Assad?s Government in Syria is also not really united.
So, the best issue is whom the NATO or the other actors are going support within the possible military involvement. Basically, Turkey will not be able to do it alone with the exception of possible short-scale actions which might be on some close distances from the border. Or on the other hand, in case of a large-scale military action ? there will be an issue also for the NATO which understands quite well that any sort of involvement will bring harder issues within Syria and harder intra-sectarian problems within Syria. So, this military involvement only seems possible in a short term perspective. And in the middle term perspective the issue will basically be ? how united will be the opposition in Syria and if there will be a necessity to seize them with some probability of gaining some profits from the situation.
Source: http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_10_17/Syria-crisis-Turkey-en-route-to-ME-dominance-or-disaster/
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